2018 Oscar Predictions: The Screenplays

The Academy

     March 5th is the big day, folks: Oscar night! All the best (arguably) movies of the last year come together to be celebrated by Hollywood’s elite and to be skipped by everyone else. Yes, it’s very self-celebratory, but for a film nerd like me I do like to see how the awards go down and who walks away the big winner. With that being said, from this day until Sunday I will be posting my predictions and thoughts on the nominees. Today, let’s take a look at the nominees for the two big writing awards: Adapted and Original Screenplay!
 

Adapted Screenplay 

Gold Derby

And the nominees are… 

Call Me By Your Name (James Ivory)

The Disaster Artist (Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber)

Logan (Michael Green, James Mangold, and Scott Frank)

Molly’s Game (Aaron Sorkin)

Mudbound (Dee Rees and Virgil Williams)

Who Will Win: Molly’s Game 

Who Should Win: Call Me By Your Name 

     Look, I love Logan a whole lot, it even was my second favorite film of 2017, but let’s be honest. This movie had no chance at the Oscars, and the fact that it was even nominated for a writing award should be enough of an honor for us people hoping that the genre will one day be taken seriously. Mudbound faces a similar struggle for a different reason: it’s a Netflix film. Despite the nominations it received I still think the Academy would rather go bankrupt than hand an award to a film that is part of the enemy of the theater chains. As for The Disaster Artist, well… I think we know why that one won’t win. 

     Molly’s Game isn’t a film popping up on a lot of Oscar radars, but I think it’ll win for one reason: Aaron Sorkin. The Academy absolutely loves this guy and never misses a chance to reward him (Steve Jobs notwithstanding), and since the film wasn’t nominated elsewhere I think they’ll give it to him. The Oscars are a little more diplomatic nowadays, and they spread the love around when they can. I’m thinking back to when Her received the best Original Screenplay award and nothing else, for instance. I could be wrong, and I probably will be, but I think it has a solid chance.

     Call Me By Your Name deserves the award, though, for just being the best selection out of these. Molly’s Game is very entertaining and has some great moments, but Call Me By Your Name is just such a beautiful piece of work all around. James ivory's script effortlessly blends elements from coming of age stories, romances and LGBT films into one perfect package, and has one of the best speeches of the year tucked in. It also doesn’t give way to the “THIS IS AN IMPORTANT MOVIE” traps that so many LGBT movies do, instead opting to go for the relatable angle, delivering a story any of us can identify with. It definitely deserves the Oscar, especially since its chances of winning anything else seem very slim.

Collider

One day, Armie!

Original Screenplay 

Gold Derby

And the nominees are… 

The Big Sick (Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani)

Get Out (Jordan Peele)

Lady Bird (Greta Gerwig)

The Shape of Water (Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor)

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh)

Who Will Win: Get Out 

Who Should Win: Get Out 

     Well this is quite a difficult category to pick from, isn’t it? All of these films are excellent, and they all deserve the prize. However, let’s look at the field here. You have the film that will probably win Best Actress (Lady Bird), Best Director (The Shape of Water) and more than likely Best Picture (Three Billboards). The only one not nominated for anything else is The Big Sick, a film that I believe was robbed of a Best Picture nomination. It’s a pretty joyful little comedy and I loved it, but I think this is more of a “sorry you didn’t get nominated for anything else” nomination. Maybe they’ll surprise me! I’d be happy if any of these won, honestly!

     Get Out will win, and deservedly so, because of two reasons. One, the aforementioned democratic awarding the Academy does, and two, because it’s just a brilliant screenplay. Jordan Peele is a comedic genius, but he took that and molded what could have been a funny and awkward Key and Peele sketch into a terrifying and poignant reality check for both African-Americans and smug white progressive “allies.” While Hollywood is definitely made up more of the latter type than the former, Get Out is still smart enough (and probably most important, entertaining enough) and well-written enough to not be ignored, even by them. I think I can say with confidence that this will win, and hey, it’s the most important film of 2017. If that doesn't earn it an Oscar, I don't know what will! 

Lionsgate

Hey, some films have won for less.

     So that's my thoughts on the Adapted and Original Screenplay nominees! I think one of those is maybe 100% wrong, but I've been right about these things before! Who do you think will win? Do you think someone was robbed of a nomination? Are you still mad that Spider-Man wasn't nominated? Tune in on Sunday to see the results!

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