Oscar Predictions: The Actors

The Academy Awards

     Today, on my newly minted Oscar predictions rundown series, we’re going to talk about one of the most competitive Oscar races and one that is probably the most predictable one: the actors races! Could there be any surprises in this lineup of nominees? Or should we just go ahead and give it to Daniel Day-Lewis now? Let’s find out!

Best Supporting Actor

CBS News

And the nominees are…

Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)

Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards)

Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)

Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)

Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards)

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell

Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Harrison Ford (Blade Runner 2049)

     Look, this is obviously the predictable one. Sam Rockwell has won pretty much every Supporting Actor award from every major organization that gives out movie awards. However, I want to take a moment to say some nice things about the other nominees, since they were all actually pretty incredible. Willem Dafoe is sadly the only nomination for The Florida Project, a great yet criminally underseen little movie that deserved more. He’s great as he always is, primarily because it's one of the few times in his career where he plays a normal guy, but one with a lot of heart and heft in this story. Christopher Plummer needs to get some kind of award for saving All the Money in the World, since Kevin Spacey was removed for being a horrible, disgusting excuse of a human being, and Plummer did an excellent job! The fact that he pulled off that performance in the span of ten days is just amazing. Harrelson is great in Three Billboards, but I’d say he was the weakest of the nominees, and the one they should have instead put Harrison Ford in. Seriously, guys, he was great in Blade Runner 2049! Best performance of his in decades, decades I tell you!

The Real Chrissparkle

Live footage of Harrison during the nomination announcements.

     Anyways, if there’s any real competition to Sam Rockwell it’s Richard Jenkins, who is just incredible in The Shape of Water. As the unwitting accomplice to the rescue the monster scheme (and one hiding his own secrets from the world), Jenkins has a lot of great scenes that showcase his considerable range, whether they make you laugh or break your heart. He’s the anchor to reality that helps this film feel real, and despite the fish banging going on I actually was always looking forward to seeing more of him. I would be very happy to see him be the upset, but…

     Sam Rockwell is going to win this, guys. He’s won all the other major awards, he’s a veteran character actor the Academy might want to award after so much time (think J.K. Simmons’ win for Whiplash), and he just does a great job. I know this role has caused a lot of controversy, but does that really have anything to do with his performance? His Dixon is a terrible person, with the added bonus of being completely pathetic, but there’s something about the way Rockwell plays him that’s just magnetic. Whether he’s the butt of a joke, a frightening brute or even a man struggling to be good, Rockwell pulls it all off like the master that he is. The guy has been overlooked long enough by the Academy. He deserves to win, and I think he definitely will.

Sony Pictures Classic

Still haven't forgiven you for this, Academy!

Best Actor

Gold Derby

And the nominees are…

Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)

Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)

Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)

Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq.)

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman

Who Should Win: Gary Oldman

Who Should Have Been Nominated: Hugh Jackman (Logan)

     Sorry Denzel, I love you but you’re not winning. He was excellent in Roman J. Israel, but the movie just wasn’t that good. The Academy loves him, so they nominated him. Of course. But besides him, this is a pretty competitive little race. On the one hand you have the guy who’s won everything so far, the lead of the upstart horror film that’s hung on since February, a bright young talent with not one but two great performances this year, and one of the greatest actors of all time, possibly the great living today. Tough competition. Let’s narrow things down a bit.

     As much as I’d love to see Daniel Kaluuya get the win, I think that his work in Get Out just isn’t showy enough for the Academy. He’s great, no doubt, but some of the other performers have more of that actor-y feel to it, you know what I mean? Kaluuya’s Chris feels very much like a real person, almost like someone was just asked to play themselves experiencing a bad situation. I think that’s perfectly fine and more than nomination-worthy, but the Academy tends to prefer something showier. Timothée Chalamet is the same way, delivering a brilliant performance in Call Me By Your Name but honestly just playing a kid that feels like a real kid. I loved him, but I was so surprised when I saw people suggest that he was the greatest competition to Gary Oldman. Both of these guys are still young, and they will definitely be on that stage one of these days for something.

GIPHY

Yes it is, dude. Yes it is.

     While I think Gary Oldman is going to take it, Daniel Day-Lewis is always a threat when it comes to the Oscars. Daniel Day-Lewis could leave his house to get the paper and win an Oscar, but Phantom Thread is supposedly his last role, and is a great one for him. The role is very deep and complex, and more than a little creepy, and really has all the ingredients to a great, Oscar winning role there. He has a great track record with the Academy as well, only losing the award two times, one to Tom Hanks for Philadelphia and another to Adrien Brody for The Pianist. Tom was left out this year and Adrien Brody has been banished for doing this garbage, so the only competitors that have ever beaten Day-Lewis are out of the game.

     And yet, this is Gary Oldman’s time. Like Sam Rockwell he’s won pretty much every major award, he’s a long-established actor with a legendary career that has only been nominated once before, and he gave a physically transformative, powerful and very show-y performance! What could the Academy not like about that? Oldman is tremendous as Winston Churchill and disappears entirely into the role, giving perhaps the best performance of his entire career. Gary Oldman has proven time and time again that he’s a great actor and I think it would be a damn shame if the Academy refused to recognize him for his work here, because I don’t know if another role like this will come along again for him. This may well be his last chance, and it’s high time they gave him the freaking trophy!

Whimn

One day, Hugh! One day!

     So that's today's look at the nominees for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor. Who will take home the big prize? Tune in Sunday to find out! Tomorrow: the Actresses!

Hey guys, if you like this article please leave a comment or share this post so we can get the word out there! If you have any questions or comments you can find me at:

Twitter: @PresidentGlover

Instagram: _steveng_

Also, if you like this please drop by Amazon to pick up a copy of my book RED STEEL, available in both paperback and Kindle formats. Thanks for the support!