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| The Academy Awards |
Best Supporting Actress
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| CBS News |
And the nominees are…
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)
Who Will Win: Allison Janney
Who Should Win: Allison Janney
Who I Really Want to Win but I Know There Was a Better Performance: Laurie Metcalf
Like the other acting categories, this is a pretty strong selection of actresses, but we have to do some narrowing down. Mary J. Blige more than deserves her nomination, as she was surprisingly powerful in Mudbound, but I think the Netflix politics that will doom the film in another category will doom her here. A shame, she truly was amazing. Lesley Manville was one of the few things I actually loved about Phantom Thread, so I’m happy to see her here, but I don’t think she’ll win. The same goes for Octavia Spencer (except that I really liked her movie), who is great in the parts she’s in but I don’t think will win the award. Besides, having one an award before I think actually hurts her chances, which is usually how it works for some reason.
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| YouTube
The biggest obstacle to getting an Oscar is... Having an Oscar.
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Laurie Metcalf was my favorite to win this award for a long time, because I thought she was just amazing in Lady Bird. She was somehow a really tough, almost unlikable character that was still human and relatable at the end of the day. Her scenes with Saoirse Ronan resonated with me on a very personal level, and I felt like I understood not only those two characters but some relationships in my own life that have a similar antagonism to theirs. I was so happy to see the buzz around her and was convinced that she’d win…
But then I saw I, Tonya and went “Holy God, Allison Janney is a genius.” And she is, in everything she’s ever done, and like Sam Rockwell I think it’s high time this journeyman, longtime actor got her due. The character she plays in the film is so despicable, so unflinchingly evil and unrepentant… but I still liked her! There’s just a twisted sort of humanity to the way Janney plays the role of LaVona Harding that made me fall under her spell at times. It takes a very special kind of performer to pull that off, and Allison Janney is definitely in that class.
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| Vulture
I will be demanding an Oscar for that bird, as well.
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Best Actress
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| Gold Derby |
And the nominees are…
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Who Will Win: Frances McDormand
Who Should Win: Sally Hawkins
Hey, one where I disagree with myself! Out of another strong list, I feel like any of these actresses might have a chance at the award. Margot Robbie, despite being a relative newcomer, more than earns her nomination with her stunning portrayal of Tonya Harding. Yes, that character and story are still messed up, but Robbie brings such a vulnerability to her that you can’t help but feel sorry for her. Meryl Streep, per national law, was nominated again, but she did another excellent job in The Post and carried that rather dull at times film. Saoirse Ronan carries Lady Bird on her shoulders, taking what could have been a very standard and annoying high school girl character and turning her into someone very relatable and three-dimensional. Plus, this is her third time up at bat at the Oscars and I’d love to see this time be the charm that brings her the gold.
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| GIPHY |
I think Frances McDormand will get the award for two reasons: one, the dreaded “she’s won the other big awards” generic answer. Second, though, her performance is just flat out astounding to behold. Her Mildred Hayes is a tornado of righteous anger and sarcastic wit, spreading her brand of feminism around town, be it through billboards, angry talk or Molotov cocktails. I do believe this film is the one that most speaks to the year 2017 in our country, and Mildred Hayes is the embodiment, for better or for very, very worse, of the nation’s blind rage. McDormand kills it and I would not be disappointed if she won, even if she already has an Oscar for Fargo.
However, I think that Sally Hawkins deserves this more because not only did she have more of a challenge (playing a mute character), she also just impacted me the most out of everyone on this list. The Shape of Water is about people society deems "other" finding each other and about teaching us to accept them as they are, and Hawkins’ Elisa makes us feel every step of both her struggle and the eventual joy she finds. Her happiness is infectious and gives us all hope, but she is not some cipher either, giving Elisa real dimension. Plus, she makes a scene where she starts singing in a fantasy musical sequence work and not feel out of place. That is not easy!
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| Fox Searchlight
Pretending to be attracted to this thing is pretty tough, y'all.
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Best Director
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| Gold Derby |
And the nominees are…
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Jordan Peele (Get Out)
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro
Who Should Have Been Nominated: Denis Villenueve (Blade Runner 2049)
What an eclectic little mix we have this year, and all deserving of the award in some way. The first elimination is easy for me, as I think Phantom Thread was kinda boring. Not to say the film is bad in any way, but I was a little let down by it given that it was PT Anderson, who I love. Maybe on another rewatch I’ll be more forgiving, but while it is well-directed I think that it as a whole is underwhelming. This is the one I’d replace with Villenueve for sure, who directed a cinematic masterpiece this year.
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| Warner Bros Pictures
Magnifique!
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The inclusions of Jordan Peele and Greta Gerwig have led me into some interesting discussions with some people over what constitutes “best director material.” Well, I'll give you the answer I always give: the director is responsible for delivering an overall product, such as directing performances, adapting the script and overseeing the editing to make it all fit. It doesn’t have to be some great big “achievement” like Avatar or Mad Max, and both Peele and Gerwig deserve the praise they’ve been getting for bringing two great films to fruition. Both took genres that are getting played out and hackneyed (mainstream horror and coming of age movies) and turned them into excellent films. Do I think they’ll win? No, but I do believe they deserve the recognition and I can already tell that they'll be back.
My two big picks for this award in terms of competition are Nolan and del Toro, but obviously you all know who I think is going to win. Nolan did an excellent job as a director in terms of directing the film, but I think del Toro delivered the full package in The Shape of Water. While Dunkirk is definitely a real experience and should be seen on a big screen, it lacks something its competition does not: heart, character and a really powerful script. In terms of what I look for in a director, Guillermo del Toro did the best job and I think he should get it at last, especially after how many years he’s been in the game and the great work he has done.
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| Universal Pictures
And some of the garbage he's done, too
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Best Picture
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| Hollywood Reporter |
And the nominees are…
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Let’s just run down my list here, don’t want to write essays for each one:
CMBYN- Great film, well-directed and with an important message, but the lack of nominations across the board (including Best Director) and the fact that they gave the award to a more an LGBTQ movie last year (they don't like to repeat the messages, trust me) make me think that this one doesn’t have much of a chance.
DH- Hey, it sounds like pure Oscar gold: World War II, battling the Nazis, great performance from a legendary British actor… Sounds like The King’s Speech part two, right? While I think Oldman will take the trophy for Best Actor, I think Joe Wright’s epic (which I would call the UK’s Lincoln, it’s that good) will probably lose the other few nominations it received, except maybe makeup.
D- Christopher Nolan does a great job delivering a tense experience by putting us in the shoes of soldiers trapped by the Nazis with no way out, as well as the civilians who risk life and limb to come and save them. However, the lack of character development, a really compelling or emotional story and just the cold feeling of it might turn some Academy voters off.
GO- I can’t stress how important it is that this film has been nominated, being the first horror film to be nominated for Best Picture since The Sixth Sense, and it more than deserves the award for giving us the most honest and terrifying message of the past year. I would give the award to this film in a minute, though I fear that the pointed narrative and the people it targets as the villains might turn off the Academy from giving it the prize.
LB- Greta Gerwig’s coming of age dramedy is a breath of fresh air in the genre, as well as a great showcase for the talents of Gerwig and her young lead, Saoirse Ronan. Add in a powerful story and some excellent performances and you have yourself a contender. The film’s biggest detriment might be just how simple it is, as the Academy might want to award something bigger, more bombastic and “important.”
PT- Mix Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Day-Lewis and you have yourself instant contender, add in Anderson’s beautiful direction and some good performances and the chances are a little better. The Academy gave this film more nominations than most other awards groups did, meaning that it does have a good chance. If I can think of a weakness it has that the Academy would care about, it’s that it just doesn’t have the importance that some of the others have, and they love giving the award to something important.
TP- Spielberg! Hanks! Streep! Important message! Oscar gold, right? Probably not. It checks all the boxes, but it’s not really that good of a movie. It was shut out of Best Director, Actor, and Screenplay (signs that aren’t good for a win) and you can tell Spielberg shot this in a few weeks rather than dedicating his usual time and craft to it. I think it’s safe to say this one won’t be getting it.
TSOW- The current leader on the board with the nomination count of 13, The Shape of Water is the likely winner tonight. Combining cool science fiction, a Cold War setting, an important message and a love letter to classic cinema, del Toro has all the necessary elements here for a winner. The only thing I can see holding this back is that the Academy might not want to award a movie known to the general public as “the fishman banging movie.”
TBOEM- The Golden Globe winner for Best Picture has a lot going for it: powerhouse performances, great script, message, good direction, past award wins. I think this is the film that, if you want to describe the last year in a film, sums up 2017 in a nutshell. Throw in some great dialogue, some “hell yeah!” moments and an ambiguous ending and there’s something the Academy does love to reward. However, I do think that the controversy surrounding the film about race and Sam Rockwell’s character (which I personally think is a little ridiculous) may hold the Academy back from pushing the button on this one.
Who Will Win: The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Well that's it guys, the Oscars are tonight! Place your bets, grab your popcorn and watch the show and see how it all turns out!
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